sciresНаучные исследования экономического факультета. Электронный журналScientific Research of Faculty of Economics. Electronic Journal2078-3809Moscow State University10.38050/2078-3809-2023-15-3-68-82scires-269Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА НАРОДОНАСЕЛЕНИЯ И ДЕМОГРАФИЯPOPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC ECONOMICSПрогноз динамики демографического дивиденда в России с учетом пенсионной реформы и пандемииForecast of the demographic dividend dy- namics in Russia: influence of the pension reform and the pandemic.КазбековаЗ. Г.KazbekovaZ. G.

научный сотрудник,  экономический факультет

Faculty of Economics, Researcher

kazbekova.zarina@bk.ruКалабихинаИ. Е.KalabikhinaI. E.

доктор экономических наук, профессор, заведующая кафедрой народонаселения, экономический факультет

Faculty of Economics, Doctor in Economics, Professor,Head of Population Department

kalabikhina@econ.msu.ruМГУ имени М.В. ЛомоносоваРоссияLomonosov Moscow State UniversityRussian Federation2023121020231536882Copyright © Казбекова З.Г., Калабихина И.Е., 20232023Казбекова З.Г., Калабихина И.Е.Kazbekova Z.G., Kalabikhina I.E.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://scires.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/269

В настоящее время в России происходит демографическое старение: доля пожилых людей в общей численности населения возрастает, что приводит к увеличению демографической нагрузки на трудоспособное население. Санкции в долгосрочной перспективе могут оказать существенное негативное воздействие на темпы роста российской экономики, которые в последние годы демонстрировали неустойчивость, а в отдельные периоды принимали отрицательные значения. Данные тенденции обусловливают актуальность настоящего исследования. Цель данной работы состоит в прогнозировании значений демографического дивиденда в России в период до 2036 г., т. е. прогнозировании влияния старения населения на экономический рост. При прогнозировании будущей динамики демографического дивиденда в России выделено два эффекта: эффект пенсионной реформы 2019 г. (поэтапное изменение возраста выхода на пенсию) и эффект пандемии COVID-19. Согласно нашим расчетам, и пенсионная реформа, и COVID-19 положительно влияют на демографический дивиденд в России (так как расширяются границы трудоспособного возраста, и ковидная сверхсмертность в большей степени наблюдалась среди пожилых, что изменило долю населения трудоспособного возраста). При этом эффект пенсионной реформы значительно сильнее эффекта пандемии.

Population aging is taking place in Russia: the proportion of older people in the total population is rising, which leads to an increase in the demographic dependency ratio. Sanctions in the long term can have a significant negative impact on the growth rates of the Russian economy, which have shown instability in recent years, and in some periods have taken negative values. These trends determine the relevance of this study. The purpose of the work is to predict the demographic dividend in Russia in the period up to 2036, that is, to predict the impact of population aging on economic growth. When forecasting the future dynamics of the demographic dividend in Russia, we identified two effects: the effect of the 2019 pension reform (a phased change in the retirement age) and the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to our calculations, both the pension reform and COVID-19 have a positive effect on the demographic dividend in Russia (as the boundaries of working age are expanding, and COVID-19 supermortality was more observed among the elderly, which changed the share of the working-age population). At the same time, the effect of the pension reform is much stronger than the effect of the pandemic.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.