sciresНаучные исследования экономического факультета. Электронный журналScientific Research of Faculty of Economics. Electronic Journal2078-3809Moscow State University10.38050/2078-3809-2024-16-4-106-122scires-340Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА НАРОДОНАСЕЛЕНИЯ И ДЕМОГРАФИЯPOPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC ECONOMICSДетерминанты времени демографического восстановления регионов России от пандемии Covid-19Determinants of the duration of demographic recovery of Russian regions from the COVID-19 pandemicКалабихинаИ. Е.KalabikhinaI. E.

Калабихина Ирина Евгеньевна, доктор экономических наук, профессор, заведующая кафедрой народонаселения, экономический факультет

г. Москва

Irina E. Kalabikhina, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of Population Department

Moscow

ikalabikhina@yandex.ruЧконияД. Т.ChkoniiaD. T.

Чкония Диана Темуриевна, аспирант, экономический факультет

г. Москва

Diana T. Chkoniia, Graduate Student, Faculty of Economics

Moscow

chkoni77an@mail.ruМГУ имени М.В. ЛомоносоваРоссияLomonosov Moscow State UniversityRussian Federation202419012025164106122Copyright © Калабихина И.Е., Чкония Д.Т., 20252025Калабихина И.Е., Чкония Д.Т.Kalabikhina I.E., Chkoniia D.T.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://scires.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/340

Цель настоящей работы состоит в расчете и выявлении детерминант времени демографического восстановления российских регионов от пандемии коронавируса. В рамках исследования проведена оценка избыточной смертности в регионах России в период пандемии коронавируса и постпандемии как разницы между помесячными стандартизованными коэффициентами смертности, наблюдавшимися в 2020, 2021 и 2022 гг., и ожидаемыми помесячными стандартизованными коэффициентами смертности с поправкой на временной тренд. Впервые на российских данных проведен расчет времени постковидного демографического восстановления, результаты которого указывают на незаконченность процесса восстановления в некоторых регионах России и высокий уровень разрыва в его продолжительности – отставание от регионов-лидеров составляло минимум год. С помощью модели «времени жизни» определены детерминанты времени демографического восстановления регионов России от коронавирусного кризиса. Выявлено, что наиболее пострадавшим в период пандемии регионам (в которых наблюдалось более глубокое падение ОПЖ) потребовалось больше времени на восстановление. Процесс восстановления от эпидемиологического шока пандемии происходил быстрее в тех регионах, где предпринимались более активные действия по мобилизации среднего медицинского персонала; по осуществлению дополнительных стимулирующих выплат врачам, оказывающим медицинскую помощь больным с новой коронавирусной инфекцией; и по проведению вакцинации населения.

The purpose of this work is to calculate and identify the determinants of time for the demographic recovery of Russian regions from the coronavirus pandemic. The study assessed excess mortality in the Russian regions during and after the coronavirus pandemic as the difference between the monthly standardized mortality rates observed in 2020, 2021 and 2022 and the expected monthly standardized mortality rates adjusted for the time trend. The duration of post-crisis demographic recovery was calculated for the first time. The results indicate the incompleteness of the recovery process in some regions and a high gap in its duration – the lag from the leading regions was at least a year. Using the ‘lifetime’ model, the determinants of the duration of demographic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic have been determined. It was revealed that the regions most affected during the pandemic (in which there was a deeper drop in LE) took longer to recover. The process of recovery from the epidemiological shock of the pandemic occurred faster in those regions where more active actions were taken to mobilize nursing staff; to make additional incentive payments to doctors providing medical care to patients with a new coronavirus infection; and to vaccinate the population.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.