<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Publishing DTD v1.3 20210610//EN" "JATS-journalpublishing1-3.dtd">
<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">scires</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Научные исследования экономического факультета. Электронный журнал</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Scientific Research of Faculty of Economics. Electronic Journal</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">2078-3809</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Moscow State University</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.38050/2078-3809-2026-18-1-84-102</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">scires-439</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>КОНКУРЕНТНАЯ И ПРОМЫШЛЕННАЯ ПОЛИТИКА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>COMPETITION AND INDUSTRIAL POLICY</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Парадокс конкуренции воспроизведенных лекарственных препаратов на примере семаглутида</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Paradox of Generic Drug Competition: Semaglutide Case Study.</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Гайдин</surname><given-names>Т. Ю.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Gaydin</surname><given-names>T. Yu.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Гайдин Тимофей Юрьевич, аспирант, экономический факультет</p><p>г. Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Timofey Yu. Gaydin, Postgraduate student, Faculty of Economics</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">gaydinty@my.msu.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Поляков</surname><given-names>А. К.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Poliakov</surname><given-names>A. K.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Поляков Алексей Константинович, студент, механико-математический факультет</p><p>г. Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Alexey K. Poliakov, Postgraduate student, Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics</p><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">aleksei.poliakov@math.msu.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>МГУ имени М.В. Ломоносова</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Lomonosov Moscow State University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2026</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>06</day><month>04</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>18</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>84</fpage><lpage>102</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Гайдин Т.Ю., Поляков А.К., 2026</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Гайдин Т.Ю., Поляков А.К.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Gaydin T.Y., Poliakov A.K.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://scires.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/439">https://scires.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/439</self-uri><abstract><p>В настоящей работе проверен парадокс конкуренции воспроизведенных лекарственных препаратов, предложенный Альберто Кавальери и Джованни Креа, на примере препарата с международным непатентованным наименованием семаглутид на российских данных. Было выявлено, что после выхода воспроизведенных лекарственных препаратов цена оригинального препарата «Оземпик» значительно возросла, что противоречит современной экономической теории и модели Бертрана, в соответствии с которой цена должна снижаться. Прослеживается парадокс конкуренции воспроизведенных лекарственных препаратов в России на примере препарата семаглутид, однако политические и социальные условия, в которых он произошел, требуют дальнейшего изучения и анализа. При моделировании использовались также данные по другим препаратам, снижающим уровень глюкозы. В работе была построена регрессионная модель для оценки ситуации на рынке препаратов с действующим веществом семаглутид с помощью метода наименьших квадратов и модели с фиксированными эффектами, которая подтвердила парадокс конкуренции.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>In this paper, we tested the paradox of competition of reproduced drugs, proposed by Alberto Cavalieri and Giovanni Crea, using the example of a drug with the international nonproprietary name semaglutide on Russian data. It was revealed that after the release of the reproduced drugs, the price of the original Ozempik drug increased significantly, which contradicts modern economic theory and Bertrand's model, according to which the price should decrease. The paradox of the competition of reproduced drugs in Russia is traced using the example of the drug semaglutide, however, the political and social conditions in which it occurred require further study and analysis. Data on other glucose-lowering drugs were also used in the simulation. In our work, a regression model was built to assess the market situation for drugs with the active ingredient semaglutide using the least squares method and a fixed-effects model, which confirmed the paradox of competition.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>экономическая теория</kwd><kwd>семаглутид</kwd><kwd>конкуренция</kwd><kwd>парадокс конкуренции.</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>economic theory</kwd><kwd>semaglutide</kwd><kwd>competition</kwd><kwd>the paradox of competition.</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Халчанская А.С. Стратегическое патентование в фармацевтике, или как охраняется «Оземпик» // Интеллектуальная собственность. Промышленная собственность. 2025. № 4. С. 65–74.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Khalchanskaya A.S. Strategicheskoye patentovaniye v farmatsevtike, ili kak okhranyayetsya «Ozempik». Intellektual′naya sobstvennost′. Promyshlennaya sobstvennost′. 2025. No. 4. P. 65–74. (In Russ.).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit2"><label>2</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Хисямов Р.С., Апсалямова А.В., Бондарева М.А. Роль маркетинга в продвижении препаратов для похудения на примере Оземпика: анализ рисков и последствий // Образование. Наука. Научные кадры. 2025. № 2. С. 210–216. https://www.doi.org/10.24412/2073-3305-2025-2-210-216.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Khisyamov R.S., Apsalyamova A.V., Bondareva M.A. Rol′ marketinga v prodvizhenii preparatov dlya pokhudeniya na primere Ozempika: analiz riskov i posledstviy. Obrazovaniye. Nauka. Nauchnyye kadry. 2025. No. 2. P. 210–216. https://www.doi.org/10.24412/2073-3305-2025-2-210-216. (In Russ.).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit3"><label>3</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Bhattacharya J., Vogt W.B. A simple model of pharmaceutical price dynamics // The Journal of Law and Economics. 2003. Vol. 46. No. 2. P. 599–626.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Bhattacharya J., Vogt W.B. A simple model of pharmaceutical price dynamics. The Journal of Law and Economics. 2003. Vol. 46. No. 2. P. 599–626.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit4"><label>4</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Cavaliere A., Crea G. Generics Demand and Price Competition in Pharmaceutical Markets with Heterogeneous Consumers // University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management. 2023. No. 210.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Cavaliere A., Crea G. Generics Demand and Price Competition in Pharmaceutical Markets with Heterogeneous Consumers. University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management. 2023. No. 210.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit5"><label>5</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Chaudhary E., Ruppel I., Forbes M. The Supply and Demand of Ozempic in America: An Economic Analysis. 2025.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Chaudhary E., Ruppel I., Forbes M. The Supply and Demand of Ozempic in America: An Economic Analysis. 2025.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit6"><label>6</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Cui Q., Arifoğlu K., Zhan D. Generic Competition Paradox and the Role of Information Asymmetry in Pharmaceutical Markets. 2023.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Cui Q., Arifoğlu K., Zhan D. Generic Competition Paradox and the Role of Information Asymmetry in Pharmaceutical Markets. 2023.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit7"><label>7</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Fors A. et al. Prescribing patterns of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists in the Swedish capital region – a register-based cross-sectional study // European Journal of Clinical Pharmacology. 2025. Vol. 81. No. 5. P. 739–753.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Fors A. et al. Prescribing patterns of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists in the Swedish capital region – a register-based cross-sectional study. European Journal of Clinical Pharmacology. 2025. Vol. 81. No. 5. P. 739–753.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit8"><label>8</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Pulleyblank R., Larsen N.B. Cost-Effectiveness of Semaglutide vs. Empagliflozin, Canagliflozin, and Sitagliptin for Treatment of Patients with Type 2 Diabetes in Denmark: A Decision-Analytic Modelling Study // PharmacoEconomics-Open. 2023. Vol. 7. No. 4. P. 579–591.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Pulleyblank R., Larsen N.B. Cost-Effectiveness of Semaglutide vs. Empagliflozin, Canagliflozin, and Sitagliptin for Treatment of Patients with Type 2 Diabetes in Denmark: A Decision-Analytic Modelling Study. PharmacoEconomics-Open. 2023. Vol. 7. No. 4. P. 579–591.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit9"><label>9</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Scherer F.M. Pricing, profits, and technological progress in the pharmaceutical industry // Journal of Economic Perspectives. 1993. Vol. 7. No. 3. P. 97–115.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Scherer F.M. Pricing, profits, and technological progress in the pharmaceutical industry. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 1993. Vol. 7. No. 3. P. 97–115.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit10"><label>10</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Simmons D. On Hunger: Violence and Craving in America, from Starvation to Ozempic University of California Press. 2025. P. 235.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Simmons D. On Hunger: Violence and Craving in America, from Starvation to Ozempic University of California Press. 2025. P. 235.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit11"><label>11</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Socal M.P. et al. Improving Affordability of Pharmaceutical Treatments for Diabetes: A Call for Action // Diabetes Care. 2025. P. dci250002.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Socal M.P. et al. Improving Affordability of Pharmaceutical Treatments for Diabetes: A Call for Action. Diabetes Care. 2025. P. dci250002.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit12"><label>12</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">База данных патентов и лицензий MedsPaL: URL: https://www.medspal.org (дата обращения: 10.10.2025).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Baza dannykh patentov i litsenziy MedsPaL: Available at: https://www.medspal.org (accessed: 10.10.2025). (In Russ.).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit13"><label>13</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Официальный сайт Ассоциации европейского бизнеса: URL: https://aebrus.ru/weekly/2022%20Parallel%20Import%20AEB%20rus.pdf (дата обращения: 10.10.2025).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Ofitsial′nyy sayt Assotsiatsii yevropeyskogo biznesa: Available at: https://aebrus.ru/weekly/2022%20Parallel%20Import%20AEB%20rus.pdf (accessed: 10.10.2025). (In Russ.).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit14"><label>14</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Официальный сайт Государственного реестра лекарственных средств (ГРЛС): URL: https://grls.minzdrav.gov.ru/Default.aspx (дата обращения: 10.10.2025).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Ofitsial′nyy sayt Gosudarstvennogo reyestra lekarstvennykh sredstv (GRLS): Available at: https://grls.minzdrav.gov.ru/Default.aspx (accessed: 10.10.2025). (In Russ.).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit15"><label>15</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Официальный сайт Федеральной антимонопольной службы (ФАС России): URL: https://fas.gov.ru/documents/689872 (дата обращения: 09.10.2025).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Ofitsial′nyy  sayt  Federal′noy  antimonopol′noy  sluzhby  (FAS  Rossii):  Available  at: https://fas.gov.ru/documents/689872 (accessed: 09.10.2025). (In Russ.).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit16"><label>16</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Официальный сайт Федеральной службы государственной статистики (Росстат): URL: https://www.gks.ru/ (дата обращения: 10.10.2025).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Ofitsial′nyy sayt Federal′noy sluzhby gosudarstvennoy statistiki (Rosstat): Available at: https://www.gks.ru/ (accessed: 10.10.2025). (In Russ.).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit17"><label>17</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Распоряжение Правительства РФ от 23.12.2021 N 3781-р «О внесении изменений в распоряжение Правительства РФ от 12.10.2019 N2406-р»: URL: https://normativ.kontur.ru/docu-ment?moduleId=1&amp;documentId=410892 (дата обращения: 10.10.2025).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Rasporyazheniye Pravitel′stva RF ot 23.12.2021 N 3781-r «O vnesenii izmeneniy v rasporyazheniye Pravitel′stva RF ot 12.10.2019 N2406-r»: Available at: https://norma-tiv.kontur.ru/document?moduleId=1&amp;documentId=410892 (accessed: 10.10.2025). (In Russ.).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit18"><label>18</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Новостной сайт «РБК»: URL: https://www.rbc.ru/soci-ety/25/03/2023/641b172b9a79471091927566 (дата обращения: 10.10.2025).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Novostnoy	sayt	«RBK»:	Available	at:	https://www.rbc.ru/soci-ety/25/03/2023/641b172b9a79471091927566 (accessed: 10.10.2025). (In Russ.).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit19"><label>19</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Новостной сайт «Фармацевтический вестник»: URL: https://pharmvestnik.ru/con-tent/news/Chetyre-farmkompanii-pytautsya-poluchit-prinuditelnye-licenzii-na-semag-lutid.html?utm_source=TGFV_post&amp;utm_medium=Group&amp;utm_campaign=Chetyre-farmkom-panii-pytautsya-poluchit-prinuditelnye-licenzii-na-semaglutid (дата обращения: 10.10.2025).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Novostnoy sayt «Farmatsevticheskiy vestnik»: Available at: https://pharmvestnik.ru/con-tent/news/Chetyre-farmkompanii-pytautsya-poluchit-prinuditelnye-licenzii-na-semag-lutid.html?utm_source=TGFV_post&amp;utm_medium=Group&amp;utm_campaign=Chetyre-farmkom-panii-pytautsya-poluchit-prinuditelnye-licenzii-na-semaglutid (accessed: 10.10.2025). (In Russ.).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit20"><label>20</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Новостной сайт «Фармацевтический вестник»: URL: https://pharmvestnik.ru/con-tent/news/Reshenie-o-vydache-Gerofarmu-prinuditelnoi-licenzii-na-semaglutid-budet-peresmo-treno.html (дата обращения: 10.10.2025).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Novostnoy sayt «Farmatsevticheskiy vestnik»: Available at: https://pharmvestnik.ru/con-tent/news/Reshenie-o-vydache-Gerofarmu-prinuditelnoi-licenzii-na-semaglutid-budet-peresmo-treno.html (accessed: 10.10.2025). (In Russ.).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit21"><label>21</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Новостной сайт «ТАСС»: URL: https://tass.ru/obschestvo/23656813 (дата обращения: 10.10.2025).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Novostnoy sayt «TASS»: Available at: https://tass.ru/obschestvo/23656813 (accessed: 10.10.2025). (In Russ.).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref></ref-list><fn-group><fn fn-type="conflict"><p>The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.</p></fn></fn-group></back></article>
