Недальновидная скупость? Ориентация на будущее способствует репутации щедрости (Скупость и щедрость как основа репутации) (перевод М.Ю. Белецкая)

 Долгосрочное мышление и добровольное распределение ресурсов – две отличительные черты человеческой природы. В трех экспериментах (N = 1082) я проверяю причинную связь: иногда люди проявляют щедрость из-за того, что думают о будущем. Участникам случайным образом было предложено сфокусироваться либо на настоящем, либо на будущем, а затем они принимали конкретные решения в гипотетических сценариях. В исследовании 1 (N = 200) участники, ориентированные на будущее, разделили больше денег в публичной игре «диктатор», чем участники, ориентированные на настоящее (+ 39%), и они были готовы пожертвовать больше денег на благотворительность (+ 61%). В исследовании 2 (N = 410) был воспроизведен положительный эффект ориентации на будущее при игре «диктатор», когда выбор был обозначен как публично известный (+ 36%), но не было обнаружено такого эффекта, когда выбор был обозначен как неизвестный другим людям. Таким образом ориентация на будущее делала участников более щедрыми только тогда, когда другие знали об их выборе. Исследование 3 (N = 472) обеспечивало больший охват и предварительную фиксацию гипотез и техники исследования, частично повторяя исследование 1, и включая несколько расширений. Ориентированные на будущее участники снова пожертвовали больше денег на благотворительность в рамках сценария общественных пожертвований (+40%), и они с большей вероятностью выбирали вариант волонтерской деятельности (+17%). Как и предполагалось, эффект был опосредован заботой о репутации, указывая на то, что ориентация на будущее может сделать людей более щедрыми, потому что это также заставляет их задуматься о социальных последствиях своего выбора. Взятые вместе, результаты показывают, что ориентация на будущее способствует увеличению проявления щедрости, в основе которой лежит забота о репутации. Стимулируя добровольное распределение ресурсов, центральной функцией человеческого предвидения может быть поддержка сотрудничества в группах и обществе.  

1. Andreoni, J. (1988). Why free ride? Strategies and learning in public goods experiments. Journal of public Economics, 37(3), 291-304. https://doi.org/10.1016/00472727(88)90043-6

2. Apicella, C. L., Marlowe, F. W., Fowler, J. H., & Christakis, N. A. (2012). Social networks and cooperation in huntergatherers. Nature, 481(7382), 497-501. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10736

3. Axelrod, R. (1984). The evolution of cooperation (Vol. 5145). Basic Books (AZ).

4. Baumeister, R. F. (2005). The cultural animal: Human nature, meaning, and social life. Oxford. University Press. https://doi.Org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195167030.001.0001

5. Baumeister, R. F., Maranges, H. M., & Sjastad, H. (2018). Consciousness of the future as a matrix of maybe: Pragmatic prospection and the simulation of alternative possibilities. Psychology of Consciousness: Theory, Research, and Practice, 5(3), 223-238. https://doi.org/10.1037/cns0000154

6. Baumeister, R. F., Vohs, K. D., & Oettingen, G. (2016). Pragmatic prospection: How and why people think about the future. Review of General Psychology, 20(1), 3-16. https://doi.org/10.1037/gpr0000060

7. Bear, A., & Rand, D. G. (2016). Intuition, deliberation, and the evolution of cooperation. Pro-ceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(4), 936-941. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1517780113

8. Beersma, B., & Van Kleef, G. A. (2011). How the grapevine keeps you in line: Gossip in-creases contributions to the group. Social Psychological and Personality Science, 2(6), 642-649. https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550611405073

9. Ben-Ner, A., Kramer, A., & Levy, O. (2008). Economic and hypothetical dictator game ex-periments: Incentive effects at the individual level. The Journal of Socio-Economics, 37(5), 1775-1784. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2007.11.004

10. Bradley, A., Lawrence, C., & Ferguson, E. (2018). Does observability affect prosociality? Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 285(1875). https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.0116

11. Bulley, A., Henry, J., & Suddendorf, T. (2016). Prospection and the present moment: The role of episodic foresight in intertemporal choices between immediate and delayed rewards. Review of General Psychology, 20(1), 29-47. https://doi.org/10.1037/gpr0000061

12. Bulley, A., Miloyan, B., Pepper, G. V., Gullo, M. J., Henry, J. D., & Suddendorf, T. (2019). Cuing both positive and negative episodic foresight reduces delay discounting but does not affect risk-taking. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, https://doi.org/10.1177/1747021818819777

13. Camerer, C. F., Dreber, A., Holzmeister, F., Ho, T. H., Huber, J., Johannesson, M.,... & Alt-mejd, A. (2018). Evaluating the replicability of social science experiments in Nature and Science between 2010 and 2015. Nature Human Behaviour, 2(9), 637-644. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562018-0399-z

14. Camerer, C., & Mobbs, D. (2016). Differences in behavior and brain activity during hypothet-ical and real choices. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 21(1), 46-56.

15. Camerer, C., & Weigelt, K. (1988). Experimental tests of a sequential equilibrium reputation model. Econometrica, 56(1), 1-36. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911840

16. Cappelen, A., & Tungodden, B. (Eds.) (2019). The economics of fairness. The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics Series. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781785367700

17. Capraro, V., Jordan, J. J., & Rand, D. G. (2014). Heuristics guide the implementation of social preferences in oneshot Prisoner’s Dilemma experiments. Scientific reports, 4, 6790. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep06790

18. Chennu, S., Noreika, V., Gueorguiev, D., Blenkmann, A., Kochen, S., Ibanez, A., ... & Bekinschtein, T. A. (2013). Expectation and attention in hierarchical auditory prediction. Journal of Neu-roscience, 33(27), 1119411205. https://doi.org/10.1523/JNEUROSCI.0114-13.2013

19. Crockett, M. J. (2016). How formal models can illuminate mechanisms of moral judgment and decision making. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 25(2), 85-90. https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721415624012

20. Curry, O. S., Mullins, D. A., & Whitehouse, H. (2019). Is it good to cooperate? Testing the theory of morality-ascooperation in 60 societies. Current Anthropology, 60(1), 47-69. https://doi.org/10.1086/701478

21. Dennett, D. C. (2013). Intuition pumps and other tools for thinking. W. W. Norton & Company. Dennett, D. C. (2017). From bacteria to Bach and back: The evolution of minds. W. W. Nor-ton & Company. Engelmann, J. M., Herrmann, E., & Tomasello, M. (2012). Five-year olds, but not chimpanzees, attempt to manage their reputations. PLOS ONE, 7(10), e48433. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0048433

22. Engelmann, J. M., Over, H., Herrmann, E., & Tomasello, M. (2013). Young children care more about their reputation with ingroup members and potential reciprocators. Developmental Science, 16(6), 952-958. https://doi.org/10.1111/desc.12086

23. Eriksson, K., Vartanova, I., Strimling, P., & Simpson, B. (2019). Generosity pays: Selfish people have fewer children and earn less money. Forthcoming in Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. https://doi.org/10.1037/pspp0000213

24. Eyal, T., Liberman, N., & Trope, Y. (2008). Judging near and distant virtue and vice. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 44(4), 1204-1209. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2008.03.012

25. Falk, A., Becker, A., Dohmen, T., Enke, B., Huffman, D., & Sunde, U. (2018). Global evidence on economic preferences. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133(4), 1645-1692. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy013

26. Faul, F., Erdfelder, E., Lang, A.-G., & Buchner, A. (2007). G*Power 3: A flexible statistical power analysis program for the social, behavioral, and biomedical sciences. Behavior Research Methods, 39(2), 175-191. https://doi.org/10.3758/BF03193146

27. Fehr, E., & Schmidt, K. M. (2006). The economics of fair-ness, reciprocity and altruism – Experimental evidence and new theories. Handbook of the Economics of Giving, Altruism and Reciprocity, 1, 615-691. Elsevier B.V. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0714(06)01008-6

28. Ferrante, D., Girotto, V., Straga, M., & Walsh, C. (2013). Improving the past and the future: A temporal asymmetry in hypothetical thinking. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 142(1), 23-27. https://doi.org/10. 1037/a0027947

29. Gong, H., & Medin, D. L. (2012). Construal levels and moral judgment: Some complications. Judgment and Decision Making, 7(5), 628-638.

30. Hayes, A. F. (2017). Introduction to mediation, moderation, and conditional process analysis: A regression-based approach. Guilford Publications.

31. Helzer, E. G., & Gilovich, T. (2012). Whatever is willed will be: A temporal asymmetry in attributions to will. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 38(10), 1235-1246. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167212448403

32. Henrich, N., & Henrich, J. P. (2007). Why humans cooperate: A cultural and evolutionary explanation. Oxford University Press.

33. Jachimowicz, J. M., Chafik, S., Munrat, S., Prabhu, J. C., & Weber, E. U. (2017). Community trust reduces myopic decisions of low-income individuals. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114(21), 5401-5406. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1617395114

34. Johnson, M. W., & Bickel, W. K. (2002). Within-subject comparison of real and hypothetical money rewards in delay discounting. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 77(2), 129-146. https://doi.org/10.1901/jeab.2002.77-129

35. Joireman, J., Shaffer, M. J., Balliet, D., & Strathman, A. (2012). Promotion orientation ex-plains why futureoriented people exercise and eat healthy: Evidence from the two-factor consider-ation of future consequences-14 scale. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 38(10), 1272-1287. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167212449362

36. Jordan, J., & Rand, D. G. (2019). Signaling when no one is watching: A reputation heuristics account of outrage and punishment in one-shot anonymous interactions. Forthcoming in Journal ofPersonality and Social Psychology.

37. Kahneman, D., Knetsch, J. L., & Thaler, R. (1986). Fairness as a constraint on profit seeking: Entitlements in the market. The American Economic Review, 76(4), 728-741.

38. Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185

39. Kidd, C., Palmeri, H., & Aslin, R. N. (2013). Rational snack-ing: Young children’s decision-making on the marshmallow task is moderated by beliefs about environmental reliability. Cognition, 126(1), 109-114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2012.08.004

40. Kolle, F., & Wenner, L. (2018). Present-biased generosity: Time inconsistency across individual and social contexts (Discussion Paper No. 2018-02). The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Eco-nomics, University of Nottingham. Retrieved from https://econpa-pers.repec.org/paper/notnotcdx/2018-02.htm

41. Kortenkamp, K. V., & Moore, C. F. (2006). Time, un-certainty, and individual differences in decisions to cooperate in resource dilemmas. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 32(5), 603-615. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167205284006

42. Krebs, D. L. (2008). Morality: An evolutionary account. Perspectives on Psychological Sci-ence, 3(3), 149-172. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6924.2008.00072.x

43. McGuire, W. J. (1997). Creative hypothesis generating in psychology: Some useful heuristics. Annual Review of Psychology, 48(1), 1-30. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.psych.48.1.1

44. Metcalfe, J., & Mischel, W. (1999). A hot/cool-system analysis of delay of gratification: Dynamics of willpower. Psychological Review, 106(1), 3-19. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.106.1.3

45. Muthukrishna, M., & Henrich, J. (2019). A problem in theory. Nature Human Behaviour, 3(3), 221-229. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-018-0522-1

46. Nowak, M., & Highfield, R. (2011). Supercooperators: Altruism, evolution, and why we need each other to succeed. Simon and Schuster.

47. Peysakhovich, A., Nowak, M. A., & Rand, D. G. (2014). Humans display a ‘cooperative phenotype’ that is domain general and temporally stable. Nature Communications, 5,4939. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms5939

48. Pinker, S. (2011). The better angels of our nature: The decline of violence in history and its causes. Penguin UK. Rand, D. G. (2016). Cooperation, fast and slow: Metaanalytic evidence for a theory of social heuristics and self-interested deliberation. Psycholog-ical Science, 27(9), 1192-1206. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797616654455

49. Rand, D. G., & Nowak, M. A. (2013). Human cooperation. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 17(8), 413-425. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2013.06.00

50. Roberts, W. A. (2002). Are animals stuck in time? Psychological Bulletin, 128(3), 473-489. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.128.3.473

51. Rothbart, M., & Snyder, M. (1970). Confidence in the pre-diction and postdiction of an uncertain outcome. Cana-dian Journal of Behavioural Science / Revue Canadienne Des Sciences Du Comportement, 2(1), 38-43. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0082709

52. Sakaluk, J. K. (2016). Exploring small, confirming big: An alternative system to the new statistics for advancing cumulative and replicable psychological research. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 66, 47-54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2015.09.013

53. Schacter, D. L., Addis, D. R., & Buckner, R. L. (2007). Remembering the past to imagine the future: The prospective brain. Nature Reviews Neuroscience, 8(9), 657-661. https://doi.org/10.1038/nrn2213

54. Seligman, M. E. P., Railton, P., Baumeister, R. F., & Sripada, C. (2013). Navigating into the future or driven by the past. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 8(2), 119-141. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691612474317

55. Simonsohn, U. (2015). Small telescopes: Detectability and the evaluation of replication re-sults. Psychological Science, 26(5), 559-569. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797614567341

56. Sloman, S., & Fernbach, P (2017). The knowledge illusion: Why we never think alone. New York: Riverhead Books.

57. Suddendorf, T. (2013). The gap: The science of what sep-arates us from other animals. New York, NY, US: Basic Books.

58. Suddendorf, T, & Corballis, M. C. (2007). The evolution of foresight: What is mental time travel, and is it unique to humans? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 30(3), 299-313. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X07001975

59. Tomasello, M. (2016). A natural history of human morality. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. https://doi.org/10.4159/9780674915855

60. Tomasello, M., & Vaish, A. (2013). Origins of human cooperation and morality. Annual Re-view of Psychology, 64(1), 231-255. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych113011-143812

61. Trivers, R. L. (1971). The evolution of reciprocal altruism. The Quarterly Review of Biology, 46(1), 35-57. https://doi.org/10.1086/406755

62. Vonasch, A. J., Reynolds, T., Winegard, B. M., & Baumeis-ter, R. F. (2018). Death before dishonor: Incurring costs to protect moral reputation. Social Psychological and Personality Science, 9(5), 604-613. https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550617720271

63. Wu, J., Balliet, D., & Van Lange, P. A. M. (2016). Reputation management: Why and how gossip enhances generosity. Evolution and Human Behavior, 37(3), 193-201. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2015.11.001