Forecast of the demographic dividend dy- namics in Russia: influence of the pension reform and the pandemic.
https://doi.org/10.38050/2078-3809-2023-15-3-68-82
Abstract
Population aging is taking place in Russia: the proportion of older people in the total population is rising, which leads to an increase in the demographic dependency ratio. Sanctions in the long term can have a significant negative impact on the growth rates of the Russian economy, which have shown instability in recent years, and in some periods have taken negative values. These trends determine the relevance of this study. The purpose of the work is to predict the demographic dividend in Russia in the period up to 2036, that is, to predict the impact of population aging on economic growth. When forecasting the future dynamics of the demographic dividend in Russia, we identified two effects: the effect of the 2019 pension reform (a phased change in the retirement age) and the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to our calculations, both the pension reform and COVID-19 have a positive effect on the demographic dividend in Russia (as the boundaries of working age are expanding, and COVID-19 supermortality was more observed among the elderly, which changed the share of the working-age population). At the same time, the effect of the pension reform is much stronger than the effect of the pandemic.
Keywords
About the Authors
Z. G. Kazbekova
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Faculty of Economics, Researcher
I. E. Kalabikhina
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Faculty of Economics, Doctor in Economics, Professor,
Head of Population Department
References
1. Kalabikhina I.E., Kazbekova Z.G. Vliyanie pervogo demograficheskogo dividenda na ekonomicheskiy rost s uchetom chelovecheskogo kapitala Zhurnal Novoy ekonomicheskoy assotsiatsii. 2022. No. 3. P. 81–100. DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-5 (In Russ.).
2. Bloom D., Canning D. Global demographic change: Dimensions and economic significance. Population and Development Review. 2008. No. 34. P. 17–51.
3. Bloom D., Williamson J.G. Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia. The World Bank Economic Review. 1998. Vol. 12. No. 3. P. 419–455.
4. Headey D., Hodge A. The effect of population growth on economic growth: A meta‐regression analysis of the macroeconomic literature. Population and Development Review. 2009. Vol. 35. No. 2. P. 221–248. DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2009.00274.x.
5. Kazbekova Z. Impact of the demographic dividend on economic growth. Population and Economics. 2018. Vol. 2. No. 4. P. 85–135. DOI: 10.3897/popecon.2.e36061.
6. Liu S., Hu A. Demographic change and economic growth: Theory and evidence from China. Economic Modelling. 2013. Vol. 35. P. 71–77. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.06.041.
7. Mason A. Demographic transition and demographic dividends in developed and developing countries. United Nations expert group meeting on social and economic implications of changing population age structures. Mexico City, 2005.
8. Mason A., Lee R. Reform and support systems for the elderly in developing countries: Capturing the second demographic dividend. Genus. 2006. Vol. 62. No. 2. P. 11–35. DOI: 10.2307/29789308.
9. Mody M.A., Aiyar M.S. The demographic dividend: Evidence from the Indian states. IMF Working Paper. 2011. P. 11–38.
10. Pomazkin D., Filippov V. Demographic resource for data analysis and visualization. Population and Economics. 2022. Vol. 6. No. 3. P. 117–124. DOI: 10.3897/popecon.6.e81027.
11. Wei Z., Hao R. Demographic structure and economic growth: Evidence from China. Journal of Comparative Economics. 2010. Vol. 38. No. 4. P. 472–491. DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2010.08.002.
12. Zhang H., Zhang H., Zhang J. Demographic age structure and economic development: Evidence from Chinese provinces. Journal of Comparative Economics. 2015. Vol. 43. No. 1. P. 170– 185. DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2014.07.002.
Review
For citations:
Kazbekova Z.G., Kalabikhina I.E. Forecast of the demographic dividend dy- namics in Russia: influence of the pension reform and the pandemic. Scientific Research of Faculty of Economics. Electronic Journal. 2023;15(3):68-82. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.38050/2078-3809-2023-15-3-68-82
Views:
219
Email this article 